[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Demand Declines in Off-Season, Aluminum Prices Rebound Short-Term but Sustainability in Doubt] Macro side, mixed signals persist. The Chinese government continues efforts to boost consumption, while uncertainty over the US Fed''s interest rate cut pace intensifies. Fundamentals side, aluminum capacity
LFP battery prices remained stable, while prices for ternary batteries saw a slight decline. The ESS market maintained strong seasonal demand, with an increase in shipments of large-capacity batteries due to their cost advantages. However, as year-end orders tapered off, the ASP for energy storage batteries continued to decline.
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The ASP of LCO cells dropped by approximately 8%, down to CNY 5.77/Ah. With the ongoing price decrease in raw material lithium carbonate, the cost of LCO cells is also on a downward trajectory. Looking toward the off-season demand in 1Q24, cell prices are expected
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Although the price of cathode materials for LFP battery rebounded in November, the impact on the overall battery cost was small, and the price of LFP battery remained stable. In contrast, the demand for ternary battery has lagged relatively behind, and the continued decline in ternary material prices has led to a slight decline in ternary battery prices of about 2% in
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This week, ESS battery cell prices remained stable. Cost side, influenced by the rising prices of LFP cathode materials, copper, and aluminum, the cost of ESS battery cells slightly increased. According to SMM calculations, as of last Friday, the theoretical cost of 280Ah battery cells was 0.297 yuan/Wh, and 314Ah battery cells was 0.282 yuan/Wh. Market side, although overseas
Looking toward the off-season demand in 1Q24, cell prices are expected to continue declining in January. However, with a recent slight increase in cobalt raw material prices, the drop in consumer cell prices might slow down in January. TrendForce notes that in 2023, the Li-ion battery industry experienced a significant release of capacity.
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The rapid decrease in lithium ion battery prices seen in previous years is likely to be slowed down in 2025 due to an uptick in battery material costs. These will in turn be partly
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For example, the offers for mainstream 48v20Ah e-bike lead-acid battery were cut to 350 yuan/set and the offers for car battery dipped 2-5%. In addition, most of the battery manufacturers planned to take 1-5 days off for the Labour Day holiday. The long holiday time discouraged some enterprises from restocking lead ingots. SMM Comments; Lead
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[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Demand Declines in Off-Season, Aluminum Prices Rebound Short-Term but Sustainability in Doubt] Macro side, mixed signals persist. The Chinese government continues efforts to boost consumption, while uncertainty over the US Fed''s interest rate cut pace intensifies. Fundamentals side, aluminum capacity remained stable in early
This is anticipated to support the prices of key battery materials—such as LFP, li-ion battery copper foil, and electrolytes—thereby stabilizing average battery cell prices in the first quarter of 2025. Entering the traditional off-season for energy storage in 1Q25, many battery makers are likely to reduce production.
After tumbling to record low in 2024 on the back of lower metal costs and increased scale, lithium-ion battery prices are expected to enter a period of stabilization. Meanwhile, entering the traditional off-season for energy storage in the first quarter of 2025, many battery makers are likely to reduce production. According to TrendForce
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The rapid decrease in lithium ion battery prices seen in previous years is likely to be slowed down in 2025 due to an uptick in battery material costs. Meanwhile, entering the traditional off-season for energy storage in the first quarter of 2025, many battery makers are likely to reduce production. According to TrendForce, combined with
Our researchers forecast that average battery prices could fall towards $80/kWh by 2026, amounting to a drop of almost 50% from 2023, a level at which battery electric vehicles would achieve ownership cost parity with
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Battery: Q1 is the traditional off-season for new energy vehicles and energy storage demand, which affects the shipments of leading battery companies to decline by an
Global average battery prices declined from $153 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2022 to $149 in 2023, and they''re projected by Goldman Sachs Research to fall to $111 by the close of this year. Our researchers forecast
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Entering the traditional off-season for energy storage in 1Q25, many battery makers are likely to reduce production. Combined with relatively stable material costs, ESS
This optimistic demand outlook is projected to stabilize battery material costs, with January prices for EV batteries expected to remain close to December levels, TrendForce
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According to the survey, average battery prices are expected to slip below $100 per kWh as soon as 2026. This is widely considered the “price parity” threshold with ICE vehicles. By 2030, prices could fall as low as $69 per kWh. The study also points out that geopolitical uncertainties and slower demand could impact pricing.
Global average battery prices declined from $153 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2022 to $149 in 2023, and they’re projected by Goldman Sachs Research to fall to $111 by the close of this year.
This is widely considered the “price parity” threshold with ICE vehicles. By 2030, prices could fall as low as $69 per kWh. The study also points out that geopolitical uncertainties and slower demand could impact pricing. It’s no secret by now that China dominates the global battery market.
EV battery prices are plummeting, falling faster than most expected. This year will mark the steepest decline since 2017. With new tech and cheaper alternatives hitting the market, electric vehicles will soon be even more affordable than their gas-powered counterparts.
Our researchers forecast that average battery prices could fall towards $80/kWh by 2026, amounting to a drop of almost 50% from 2023, a level at which battery electric vehicles would achieve ownership cost parity with gasoline-fueled cars in the US on an unsubsidized basis. Source: Company data, Wood Mackenzie, SNE Research, Goldman Sachs Research
Technology advances that have allowed electric vehicle battery makers to increase energy density, combined with a drop in green metal prices, will push battery prices lower than previously expected, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
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